Marlins’ Playoff Chances Without Stanton Still High

It’s been said countless times, both on this blog and around the baseball world: If Giancarlo Stanton could stay healthy for a full season, he could hit 45+ home runs. The problem? Stanton has never been able to stay fully healthy for a whole year throughout the length of the majority of his entire career, proven once again recently by his latest injury that’s going to force him to sit out the rest of 2016. Stanton

The most games Stanton has ever played in came back in 2011, when he took part in 150. Since then, Stanton has missed 249 possible games with the Marlins, leaving them without his immense power for an extended stretch.

In 2014, Stanton missed the final two weeks of the season after getting hit in the face by a pitch. Then, last season, Stanton lost out on an entire three months after breaking his hand. Given, Stanton can’t avoid freak injuries such as those, but it’s certainly not the amount of playing time the Marlins were looking for when they signed him to a 325 million dollar contract.

Stanton’s latest season-ending injury takes him from the Marlins just as they are in a race for the second Wild Card spot. Now, without Stanton and his team-leading 25 home runs and 70 RBI’s, many people are simply dashing any chance whatsoever of the Marlins making the postseason.

But I’m just not convinced.

Yes, the loss of Stanton is very impactful. Hitting anywhere from 24 to 37 home runs each of the past six seasons, and crushing the ball virtually every game, Stanton is a bat that you definitely want in your lineup. However, the time to panic for the Marlins and their fans is not now.

Although given just a 22 percent chance at making the postseason by MLB.com, the Marlins still have some big time contributors, including Christian Yelich, Martin Prado and Marcell Ozuna, among others. While their pitching, with the exception of Jose Fernandez, isn’t all that great, I feel they have enough to make the postseason without Stanton, or at least stay relevant right up until the end.

It’s been thirteen years since the Marlins made the postseason at all, winning the World Series back in 2003. If nothing else, the Marlins are giving the fans in Miami something to be optimistic about for a change, currently tied with the Cardinals for a Wild Card spot with less than fifty games remaining.

They survived 80 games without Dee Gordon.

Now they just need to make it 44 without Giancarlo Stanton.

The Tommy John Epidemic Not Letting Up

First it was Corey Luebke. Then it was Luke Hochevar. Following soon after was Kris Medlen, along with Brandon Beachy, Jarrod Parker, Patrick Corbin, Bruce Rondon, David Hernandez, Peter Moylan, Erik Davis, Cory Gearrin, Bobby Parnell, Matt Moore, Josh Johnson, Ivan Nova, Pedro Figueroa and A.J. Griffin.Jose Fernandez

And now, reportedly, it’s Jose Fernandez.

Though it’s officially being classified as just an elbow strain, Fernandez would become the 18th major league pitcher to be forced to undergo Tommy John surgery (assuming the reports are true, and he has to have the surgery) since February 18th of this year. Meaning, Fernandez’s quest to win the 2014 National League Cy Young award, after placing third in 2013, would come to an end, as would his season.

While you don’t want a season ending injury to occur to any pitcher, you especially feel for Fernandez. Regardless of the fact that he has come across wrong in the past to a few, select players, he has a ton of fun out there on the mound and is an extremely humble guy. You don’t find both qualities all too often nowadays in major league players.

Coming off a career worst start in San Diego on Friday, in which Fernandez went just five innings, giving up five runs and raising his ERA from 1.74 to 2.44, the poor outing was the first indication that there was something wrong with Fernandez. Normally topping out at around 98 miles per hour on his fastball, Fernandez was throwing at around 91 when he was pulled from Friday’s game, and that drew a ton of attention his way as to what might be wrong. Now we know that there indeed was an issue.

If Fernandez has to undergo Tommy John surgery, it would be the first time in around a year that the Marlins have had to experience games without him toeing the rubber every fifth day. Without Fernandez for an extended period of time, it should be interesting to see how the Marlins fare. They’re off to a great start to the season, and if the pitching performances of Henderson Alvarez, Nathan Eovaldi and Tom Koehler can continue, as well as the hot bats of Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich and Marcell Ozuna, the Marlins should be able to hang in there.

But even so, the loss of Fernandez isn’t something you want to brush off too lightly, because, as stated, he’s not the only pitcher who has been lost from their team for the season. In addition to the 18 major league pitchers previously listed who have fallen victim to Tommy John surgery, 16 minor league pitchers have been faced with the crushing news as well — all since February 18th, which averages out to a new pitcher having to have Tommy John once every 2.5 days.

Something is obviously wrong, and something needs to be done.

The most Tommy John surgeries in a single year since it was first performed on Tommy John himself back in 1974 was 46 in 2012. Sitting just 12 away for 2014, with several months left to go in the season, it’s likely that the number 46 could be surpassed, and that should be enough to tommy-johnmake people pay attention.

With there having only been 31 pitchers to have the surgery from it’s debut in 1974 all the way up until 1997, there have been more pitchers so far (33) in 2014 to have the surgery than there were in that 23-year span. That’s a definite problem.

Though the cause for the need of the surgery has been debated, from a pitcher’s mechanics having an impact, to the number of pitches thrown in an outing, or the innings pitched in a season playing a role, more and more people are beginning to look into the stress put on a pitcher’s arm in their youth.

The theory is that with young pitchers, in Little League and such, throwing too hard, too often, and adding in breaking balls too early in their playing years, their arms can’t handle the stress, and they begin to break down long before they reach the majors and have a season ending injury. With year round leagues becoming more popular, as well as multiple leagues for some pitchers, everything combines together for something bad to happen, and that is appearing to be the case.

One solution being pointed out by a lot of people (other than telling kids to lighten up with their velocity and number of games pitched) is for young pitchers to pitch off a flat mound instead of one that’s the same height as a major league pitcher. As Sports Illustrated’s Tom Verducci put it, “[it] makes no sense that 13-year-old kids are pitching off the same size mound as major league pitchers. Little Leaguers should be throwing off flat ground”. I have to agree with Verducci, and if that would help minimize injuries, then I’m all for it.

While Tommy John surgery is now becoming a routine surgery, and one that many pitchers have successfully come back from (a study showed that 97 percent of pitchers make it back to the minors, with 83 percent getting back to the majors, including Tommy John who pitched 14 more years and won 164 more games after his surgery), if it can be avoided altogether, obviously, that’s the more appealing alternative.

Whatever it takes, things need to change.

If you need to lower the mound for Little Leaguers, and perhaps even the major leagues down the road — lower the mound. If you need to issue a plan for young kids with what they’re allowed to do before a certain age — issue a plan. Do something that turns around this increasing Tommy John epidemic. There are far too many of the game’s greatest pitchers having to sit out a season in their prime, and that’s beginning to get very tiresome for the fans, and, I imagine, the players themselves.