Surprisingly Good and Bad Performances from 2016

In baseball — much like in life — surprises can be really good or they can be really bad. A good surprise in baseball might be a player or team having an unpredicted breakout season, while a bad surprise may be defined as a team or player destined for great things having a below average year. The 2016 season has had plenty of both throughout the entire stretch.

With just over a week left until the last games of the season leading up to the playoffs, a lot has taken place that can be deemed as good surprises or bad surprises. Having said that, I wanted to take the time to go over six hitters, six pitchers and six teams who surprised the baseball world in good or bad ways, keeping in mind that it is by no means a record of all the players who fit each category, nor is it the very top options in some cases. It’s simply a broad overview meant to recap the season as a whole.

HITTERS

Surprisingly Good: Brian Dozier, Brad Miller and Adam Duvall

Over the past several seasons, Brian Dozier has been one of the best second basemen in all of baseball. However, this season, he has broken out as arguably the best second baseman in baseball. With a previous career high of 28 home runs coming last year, Dozier has been even better this season, having knocked 42 so far — the most in American League history for a second baseman. Despite the Twins having the worst record in baseball, Dozier has been a huge surprisingly bright spot in Minnesota.

On the same theme, Brad Miller has been the biggest standout on the Rays, with the exception of All-Star Evan Longoria. Hitting 30 homers to this point in the year, Miller has blasted more round-trippers this campaign than he had over the past three seasons (343 games) combined. For that reason, Miller has been a great surprise to Tampa Bay. Whether Miller will be this type of player moving forward or is simply having a career-year, there is little argument that he wasn’t expected to be this good when the season began.

The final player on my list is Adam Duvall. After winning a World Series ring with the Giants back in 2014, Duvall has spent the last two years in Cincinnati, where he has turned out to be an extremely productive player. After playing in just 27 games last season, in which Duvall managed to hit just 5 home runs, this season has seen Duvall breaking out to record 31 blasts. It surely was surprising to see Duvall break out in the way he did, but it certainly was of the good surprise variety for the Reds and their fans.

Surprisingly Bad: Mark Teixeira, Jason Heyward and Bryce Harper

Mark Teixeira announced earlier this season that 2016 would be his final year, but he’s not going out with a bang as many of baseball’s greats have before him. Unlike his fellow retiree David Ortiz, who has recorded one of the best years in baseball history for a player 40 or older, Teixeira hasn’t been able to hit even a mere .200 and has notched only 13 homers and 38 RBI’s in 2016. Following 2015, in which Tex managed 31 homers, his year has definitely been a bad surprise for the Yankees. Even so, he is still one of the best players in recent baseball history, having hit over 400 homers in his career.

When the Cubs signed Jason Heyward to an eight-year, 184 million dollar contract leading up to this season, he was obviously expected to put up All-Star numbers for Chicago. However, he has somewhat surprisingly been pretty horrible, quite frankly. Only managing to record seven home runs and a .230 average, Heyward has yet to get things going, now nearly six months into the season. Given, Heyward can turn things around with the playoffs looming, but it would take a lot for that to happen where things stand now.

Bryce Harper’s 24 home runs and 82 home runs would be a great season for any number of players around Major League Baseball. But by Harper’s standards — set last season with his MVP-earning 42 homers — Harper is having a surprisingly bad year, seeing his batting average drop nearly an entire 100 points from a year ago. There have been rumors that Harper has been playing through an injury all season long, but that’s being denied by Harper. Whether or not it’s true, Harper — who was expected to be in the running for a second straight MVP — is still having a surprisingly down year by all accounts.

PITCHERS

Surprisingly Good: Kyle Hendricks, Tanner Roark and Steven Wright

Part of a rotation that includes the likes of Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks has surprisingly been the best pitcher of the Cubs’ entire rotation. Over the course of 28 games started for the Cubs, Hendricks has notched a mere 2.06 ERA — the best in all of baseball. By doing so, Hendricks has helped to lead the Cubs to the best record in baseball and what looks to have all the makings of a postseason run. Although it’s yet to be seen whether or not this is actually the year for the Cubs, it has certainly been the year for Kyle Hendricks.

Tanner Roark has been an average to above average pitcher for the Nationals over the past few years, but this season Roark has truly broken out. Holding a 2.70 ERA over 200.1 innings pitched, Roark has kept the Nats push towards October strong, despite the loss of Stephen Strasburg for a good chunk of the season, and inevitably the final several weeks. It very well may come down the Roark’s ability to keep his surprisingly good performance going in order to keep the Nationals going deep into the postseason.

I’ve been bringing up the name Steven Wright all season long, and for good reason. Despite being a knuckleballer, Wright has been one of the top surprises in terms of pitchers this season for the Red Sox. Although his historic start to the season has slowly dwindled away as the year progressed, Wright’s 3.30 ERA is still good enough to make this list. Although he is currently working to battle his way back from an injury, Wright has still recorded enough innings to prove himself to all of baseball that he is a true weapon moving forward.

Surprisingly Bad: Chris Archer, Shelby Miller and Zack Greinke

Chris Archer broke out in 2015 to be one of the best pitchers in all of baseball, and was set to be the Rays’ ace moving into this season. But after getting off to a poor start to begin the year, Archer hasn’t been able to get much of anything going with only one more start remaining. The strikeouts are still there, as he has produced over ten strikeouts per nine innings on the year; and with the Rays’ poor collective season, Archer’s 19 losses are somewhat deceiving. But his 4.02 ERA can’t be ignored, especially following his Cy Young eligible season last year.

Being traded to the Diamondback’s this past offseason in exchange for Dansby Swanson, who has gone from 2015 first overall draft pick to star in the big leagues, Shelby Miller has been one of the biggest surprises in all of baseball this year. Having never recorded a full-season ERA above 3.74 heading into this year, Miller has posted an ERA of 6.47 over 19 starts. Following Miller’s 3.02 ERA with the Braves last season, many expected Miller to help get the Diamondbacks back into the postseason, but he has been virtually no factor whatsoever.

Joining Shelby Miller as part of the D-back’s rotation, Zack Greinke was expected to help make their rotation one of the greatest in the majors. After all, with Greinke posting a historically-low 1.66 ERA with the Dodgers in 2015, he was all but guaranteed to be the number one starter for the D-backs. But this is baseball, where nothing is guaranteed and anything can happen from one year to the next. As such, Greinke has put up his worst ERA since back in 2005, notching a 4.37 ERA for his efforts in 2016.

TEAMS

Surprisingly Good: Marlins, Mariners and Indians

I didn’t know what to make of the Marlins heading into the 2016 season, but they truly surprised me in a big way. Dealing with the losses of star players such as Dee Gordon and Giancarlo Stanton at various points in the season, for drastically different reasons, many expected the Marlins to fade away early on. But they’ve hung in there all season long, sitting five games back of a wild card spot. Inevitably, there aren’t enough games remaining for the Marlins to wind up in the playoffs, but to still be in the discussion at this point in the year is remarkable.

Things are coming down to the wire for the Mariners, and they may not have enough in them to make the postseason for the first time since 2001, but they had a year that shocked a lot of people. With Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz and Kyle Seager all having great seasons at the right times, Seattle was able to beat a lot of teams around baseball that many felt would give them trouble. As such, they easily made my list. They may or may not make the postseason in 2016, but things are looking positive all of a sudden for them to finally get there in 2017.

Many people felt the Indians would be as good as they have been this year, but I wasn’t as convinced. I simply thought the World Series defending Royals and the always good Detroit Tigers would keep Cleveland from being relevant in the month of September. But to my surprise — as well as the surprise of some people who felt the same way I did — the Indians are sitting atop the American League Central. If they can keep things going into the playoffs, they may not be done surprising people as the postseason plays out.

Surprisingly Bad: Rays, Braves and Twins

A lot of people actually picked the Tampa Bay Rays to win the American League East division this season, with their rotation being the key to that happening. However, with Chris Archer having a rough year along with several untimely injuries, the Rays haven’t been able to come close to realizing their predicted potential. With only a week to go, the Rays are in sole possession of last place in the American League East. With the division strong once again, it remains to be seen if the Rays can turn things around in 2017 and beyond.

It took the Braves forever to win a single game this season, and once they finally recorded one in the win column, they still weren’t able to get much of anything going. Losing 91 games to this point in the year, the Braves are promising that 2017 will be the year things turn around, with them getting a shiny new ballpark across town. But if the Braves don’t turn things around next year in a big way from this season, their ballpark could easily turn out to be the bright spot in the entire season when all is said and done.

Much like the Braves, the Twins’ season was over before it even got started. When the final game has been recorded, the Twins will have more than likely lost 100+ games after finishing four game over .500 last year. Following that breakout performance for the Twins, many people felt that they would be able to keep it going into this year. But it wasn’t meant to be, as the Twins have been one of the worst teams in recent baseball history. Although they could easily turn things around in 2017, all hope is lost for this year.

Shelby Miller: A Tale of Two Seasons

Nothing is guaranteed in baseball. From one season to the next, you never know which teams will go from last to first or first to last, or which players will have a bounce back year or a season far disastrous from the one they posted just a year prior.

Shelby Miller is a prime example of that.

Last season with the Braves, Miller made himself known as a true star pitcher in baseball, giving Atlanta 205.1 strong innings, totaling up to a 3.02 ERA on the season. For his efforts, Miller received a ton of recognition — so much so that he was the key piece of a huge trade this past offseason.

Sending their top prospect (and first overall draft pick in 2015) Dansby Swanson, along with two other pieces, to the Braves, the Diamondbacks received back Shelby Miller to join Zack Greinke in what looked to be a strong pitching staff; one predicted to be more than capable of competing for the National League West title.

However, things have gone far from perfect in Arizona.

With Greinke being injured at times this season, Paul Goldschmidt not getting off to a hot start, and with 2015 breakout star, A.J. Pollock, being lost for the year in Spring Training, not a lot has gone right to help the D-backs perform the way they had been expected to.

But while it’s not completely Miller’s fault (it’s never fair to point the finger at any one player as the sole reason for a team’s losing season), he certainly has played a big part in their demise.

Going 2-9 with a 7.14 ERA over 14 starts this season, Miller was sent down to Triple-A on Thursday, with the hopes of getting him back on track in the minors. But even if he gets it going again down in Reno, things are too far gone for the Diamondbacks to regain momentum and make something special out of this season.

Sitting in last place in their division, 19 games back of the first-place Giants, the Diamondbacks haven’t had much to be excited about this season. While Miller was supposed to give the D-backs a great shot at a memorable year, he hasn’t been anywhere close to the pitcher he was last season with the Braves. But you truly never can tell how any given trade will pan out.

Even so, with the trade deadline slowly approaching in two weeks, it will be interesting to see which teams will take a gamble and make a trade for a star player. It may pay off, giving them what they need to make it to the postseason. Or it could turn out to make little to no difference, as the Shelby Miller trade has for Arizona.

Ten Players Who Need to Have a Good 2016 Season

Each and every season, there are always players with something to prove. Whether they’re looking to show that they can play at a competitive level that they’ve never lived up to; looking to show that they can be the dominant player they once were; or simply are looking for a good year for their team to have a successful year — there are numerous players that you could categorize as having a very important season coming up when things begin in around a month.

With all of that said, not every player that needs a good 2016 season is on the list I put together below. I can think of a couple dozen players that arguably need to post solid numbers in 2016, but I couldn’t include them all, and had to make some difficult exclusions. Just the opposite, there could be a few players on my list that you don’t think need a good season. Either way, this is just a list of ten players — not necessarily the “top ten” — that I feel need a good 2016 season for one reason or another:

1) Giancarlo Stanton

In 2015, Giancarlo Stanton got off to a superstar start. Blasting 27 home runs in his first 74 games, Stanton posted numbers equal to what you would expect out of a player with a 325 million dollar contract. However, things quickly came to a halt for yet another season when Stanton suffered an injury that would see him missing the remainder of the year. While Stanton’s ability to put up historic numbers is absolutely there (Stanton holds 50+ homer potential), he needs to stay on the field in order to produce in historic fashion. With the Marlins standing the slightest of chances to compete with the division favorite rival Nationals and Mets, they need every single player on their roster performing to the best of their ability, and that includes Stanton more than anyone else.

2) Jonathan Papelbon

Over the course of the past few seasons, Jonathan Papelbon has very quietly remained one of the top relievers in baseball, and he had a great season in 2015. For that reason, poor stats aren’t the reason Papelbon needs a good year in 2016; it’s his personality that needs to become part of the past. Quite simply, Papelbon can be a distraction to any team he’s on, and has had his share of controversy over his career. The biggest example of that came just last season, when a dugout altercation between Papelbon and Bryce Harper ended up seeing Papelbon’s hands around Harper’s neck. Therefore, although he is a valuable part of the Nationals’ bullpen, with a 2.13 ERA last season, Papelbon needs a good, drama-free upcoming season to put the past in the past for good.

3) Yu Darvish

When Yu Darvish came to the United States for the 2012 season, he had a ton of hype hung over him as to the kind of pitcher he was back in Japan. In his rookie season, Darvish lived up to the high praise, and was even better in 2013. But after another great season in 2014, Darvish was shut down due to an arm injury which resulted in a subsequent Tommy John surgery that kept him out of the Rangers’ rotation all of last season. With that said, Darvish appears to have successfully rehabbed from the surgery and should help out the Rangers a great deal once he returns around May. After amazingly squeaking their way into the postseason last year, if the Rangers can get a fully healthy Darvish that performs the way he did to begin his career, they could be looking at a special season.

4) Ryan Howard

Of all of the players on my list, Ryan Howard is the only player who was on my 2015 version of this blog post. But he may also be the one who needs a good season the most — for his sake alone. Howard is essentially the last remaining player of what was once a Phillies dynasty that included the likes of Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins and Cole Hamels, but he is most likely in his final season in Philly. With a vast number of talented youngsters in the minors just a season or two away from cracking the big leagues, this very well could be the last shot for Howard to prove that he can still perform at a high level. Although he hit 23 homers last season, he has failed to hit 30 or more since back in 2011. The Phillies aren’t predicted to do much this coming season, but hopefully Ryan Howard will emerge as the bright spot.

5) Pablo Sandoval

In Pablo Sandoval’s six full seasons with the Giants, he was one of the top slugging third basemen in baseball. For that reason, the Red Sox locked him up on a 5-year, 95 million dollar contract beginning last season, but he failed to live up to expectations. In 2015, Sandoval recorded a career low in batting average, RBI’s and home runs, leaving many looking for him to take things up a notch this season. But after reporting to Spring Training in subpar shape, your guess is as good mine for how Sandoval will fare in 2016. Perhaps 2015 was a mere fluke and Sandoval will return to his former All-Star self. Only time will truly tell if he can make the last four years of his contract worth the Red Sox while. But with the Red Sox looking to make another playoff push in 2016, Sandoval needs to be a big part of their team.

6) Yoenis Cespedes

A quick glimpse at Yoenis Cespedes’s stats from 2015 would undoubtedly leave you wondering how I could place him on a list of players who need a good season this coming year. Hitting .291 with 35 home runs and 105 RBI’s last year, there’s absolutely nothing more that could be asked of Cespedes; especially from the Mets, who acquired Cespedes for the second half and proceeded to make a run to the World Series. Even so, he needs a really good year equal to his most recent one for the Mets to hold off the Nationals, who, despite losing some key pieces, will still likely be very competitive this year. Without Cespedes and his superstar numbers, the Mets still hold a good chance at another playoff run. But with him performing well, it’s all but a guarantee in the minds of many.

7) Shelby Miller

As with Yoenis Cespedes, Shelby Miller had a career year in 2015, but still managed to make his way onto my list. After a few under the radar seasons with the Cardinals, Miller proceeded to breakout as one of the best young starters in all of baseball last season. Posting a 3.02 ERA over 33 starts, Miller found himself as a very valuable asset — so much so that he was traded for 2015 number one overall draft pick Dansby Swanson during the offseason. Joining fellow newcomer, Zack Greinke, in the Diamondbacks’ rotation, there are a lot of expectations out of the D-backs in 2016. Thus, Miller needs to post numbers similar to — if not better than — the ones he recorded last year. If he can do that alongside Greinke, the D-backs could be in for a major turnaround in Phoenix.

8) CC Sabathia

The past three seasons have been fairly rough for CC Sabathia. Posting the best ERA of those seasons this past year of 4.73 is enough to prove just how bad things have been (not even including his off-the-field battles). However, there is seemingly hope for Sabathia in 2016, with many people even going as far as to envision him becoming the comeback player of the year. That doesn’t mean there isn’t a lot of uncertainty moving forward for Sabathia, though. At 35 years old, and with his best numbers likely in the past, Sabathia is in need of a good season to get his career back on track. The Yankees actually have a fairly good team heading into this season, but it is going to take a team effort, including solid numbers from Sabathia, for them to get any sort of postseason run together.

9) Wil Myers

Going from former first round draft pick and top five prospect in all of baseball to an injury-plagued player who has yet to live up fully to the type of numbers many predicted he would post, Wil Myers needs a fully healthy 2016 to show what he’s truly capable of. Myers showed a glimpse at his potential back when he first came up in 2013 with the Rays, going on to win the Rookie of the Year award, and theoretically has 30+ homer power, if he can only find a way to tap into it. This season with the Padres, Myers is making the switch to first base full time, so hopefully some stability will allow him to get into the zone for the length of the season. Having yet to play even 100 games in a single season over his career, Myers could finally break through if he can simply play the majority of games this coming year.

10) Matt Moore

Possessing all the talent in the world, this is a make-or-break season for Matt Moore in my mind. Although he has shown flashes of greatness over his career, Moore suffered an arm injury that lead to him having to undergo Tommy John surgery in 2014. Following his return this past season, Moore was a bit shaky, posting a 5.43 ERA on the year and spending a good bit of time down in the minor leagues in an attempt to re-establish his dominance. The Rays need him to return to form in order for Tampa to compete in the strong American League East division. Although not everyone sees the Rays doing much of anything in 2016, there are some who are predicting big things. For me, it all comes down to their starting pitching, with Moore being a big key to that success.

Monday Sees Two Major Deals & One Big Trade

Monday was certainly a big day in the baseball world.

Not only did one of the game’s biggest stars sign a contract unprecedented in the history of the sport — or any sport anywhere for that matter — but a catcher from the Steel City was locked up by the Blue Jays long term, and the Cardinals and Braves swapped players to help fill each others needs.

It was all very interesting to follow.

Giancarlo Stanton kicked off the news filled day, finally signing the mammoth contract that everyone knew would eventually come. While many people predicted it would come from a team other than the Marlins, the Marlins were in fact the team that got a deal with Stanton done.

A team that was at the bottom, in terms of team combined payroll, this past season, the Marlins locked up Stanton to a 13-year, 325 million dollar deal (the largest in the history of North American sports).

In addition to being so large, Stanton’s deal comes with a full no-trade clause — previously unheard of for the Marlins’ franchise — as well as an opt-out clause after the 2020 season. Having just turned 25 year old, the Marlins logic behind this major contract to such an impact player, who has legitimate 40+ home run a season potential, can easily be understood.

Despite a season ending injury in September, Stanton posted career numbers this year, batting .288 with 37 home runs and 105 RBI’s, and finishing second in National League Most Valuable Player voting.

Tied with Dan Uggla for the most home runs in Marlins’ franchise history, with 154, Stanton will undoubtedly pass that mark early on in 2015, having hit over 20 home runs every single year of his five career seasons. A two-time All-Star, Stanton will surely go on to set numerous records while in a Marlins uniform now that this contract is officially in place, and could go down as one of the best sluggers in baseball history once all is said and done.

But Stanton wasn’t the only player that was locked up to a sizeable contract on Monday.

Also getting signed on the day was veteran catcher, Russell Martin, who agreed to an 82 million dollar contract over the course of the next five years from the Blue Jays.

Playing his last two seasons with the Pirates, after time spent between the Yankees and the Dodgers since his debut in 2006, Martin has been an up and down player over the course of his career, but should be an impact player for the Jays.

A three-time All-Star, Martin had a break out season in 2014, hitting .290 with 11 home runs and 67 RBI’s over 111 games played.

Previously a combined .234 hitter over his past five seasons, including a career low .211 in 2012, Martin truly made a name for himself this past year, and should make the Blue Jays glad they snagged him.

While Giancarlo Stanton and Russell Martin both signed contracts with their given teams, there was a big trade between the Cardinals and Braves that everyone was talking about as well.

The Cardinals received Jason Heyward and Jordan Walden in exchange for Shelby Miller and minor league prospect Tyrell Jenkins, who got sent back to the Braves. Though none of these players can be categorized as major stars, at least as of yet, they all have the ability to be key pieces of each team moving forward, and the trade truly made sense for both sides.

With their starting rotation being one of their many issues from the 2014 season, the additions of Shelby Miller and Tyrell Jenkins (both former first round draft picks) will likely do wonders for the Braves in the coming years.

Miller, who hasn’t yet been the consistent starter many envision him becoming, was decent in 2014, posting a 3.74 ERA on the season. As was Jenkins, who notched an ERA just above three over 13 minor league starts this year. Each of them have the capability to be standout players.

In the same way that the Braves needed starting pitching, the Cardinals found themselves in need of a good everyday right fielder, after the unexpected loss of their future superstar right fielder, Oscar Taveras. Jason Heyward certainly fills that role, though he hasn’t yet lived up to his superstar potential.

While Heyward has won a couple of Gold Gloves in his career with the Braves, making a lone All-Star appearance in his rookie season, he’s only a career .262 hitter. In addition, since a breakout year in 2012 when Heyward blasted 27 home runs and drove in 82 runs, he hasn’t notched more than 14 homers or upwards of 58 RBI’s in any single season.

Even so, Heyward is the type of player that can instantly improve any club he’s on. Gaining him (along with Jordan Walden, who posted a 2.88 ERA in 2014) can only help the Cardinals as they look to make another playoff run in 2015.

Top Ten Contracts I’d Give to Young Stars

With Clayton Kershaw recently receiving a 7-year, 215 million dollar deal from the Dodgers, I thought I’d go over the top young players Kershaw’s age (26 at the start of the season) or younger without extended contracts, with at least 100 games played or 100 innings pitched, that I feel would be worth a large deal (not necessarily of Kershaw’s magnitude).

Keep in mind, the players on my list might never get contracts of this amount, or they could be offered larger ones — depending on what their respective team can afford. I’m not trying to project what the future holds for each player money wise, I’m just giving my take on what I feel they’re worth, and over what period of time. Also, the players are in order of total dollar amount, not necessarily their talent level, as some positions are simply worth more money than others.

With all that said, here is my top ten list:

1.) Mike Trout — 22 years old: Contract of 10 years, 310 million dollars

There’s no doubt in my mind that Mike Trout is eventually going to receive a massive contract. After winning the 2012 American League Rookie of the Year award and going on to have an even better 2013 season, Trout is worth every dollar. At just 22 years old, Trout is the only player on my list that I’d give a 10 year contract to, with my contract coming out to 31 million a year, which would make him the highest paid player in MLB history. But he’s just going to get better and better.

2.) Giancarlo Stanton — 24 years old: Contract of 6 years, 130 million dollars

If Giancarlo Stanton had been completely healthy over the last couple of seasons, he’d probably be receiving more money in my contract. But citing the health issues, especially last season, I decided to give him just under 22 million a year. When healthy, he is a 30-40 home run player, and is just as deserving of a huge contract as Mike Trout.

3.) Freddie Freeman — 24 years old: Contract of 6 years, 100 million dollars

Many had Freddie Freeman in the running for the 2013 National League Most Valuable Player award, but while he didn’t win (Andrew McCutchen ended up taking home the honor) that doesn’t take anything away from the season Freeman had. At just 23 years old, Freeman recorded his first 100 RBI season last year, and should continue to be that type of player moving forward. Therefore, I’d lock him up until age 30, providing him with just under 17 million a season.

4.) Jose Fernandez — 21 years old: Contract of 5 years, 100 million dollars

If Jose Fernandez can perform all next season the way he did in 2013, he will be worth even more than this. Fernandez blew away the opposition last season, going 12-6 with a 2.19 ERA, and winning the National League Rookie of the Year award — even placing third in Cy Young award voting. At just 21 years old, Fernandez is going to be very good for a very long time, but I played it safe, for now, giving him 20 million a season (yes, I know that’s a ton for a player of his age) for the next five years. After that, sky’s the limit.

5.) Manny Machado — 21 years old: Contract of 6 years, 85 million dollars

Manny Machado could end up being worthy of the second largest contract of the players on my list, as he is capable of turning into a complete, superstar player a few years down the road, but for now he sits at number five. That’s no knock to him, however. He’s just 21 years old, and has already shown flashes of being one of the top two or three players in all of baseball. But if I had to offer him a contract tomorrow, I’d give him roughly 14 million a year until he turns 27.

6.) Stephen Strasburg — 25 years old: Contract of 5 years, 80 million dollars

Though he’s had a few good seasons (after undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2010) Stephen Strasburg hasn’t yet broken out as that super dominant pitcher many feel he can be, going 8-9 with a 3.00 ERA in 2013. Therefore, I have him at number six on my list, with a contract of 16 million a year until he turns 30. But a few good seasons could easily move him way up.

7.) Craig Kimbrel — 25 years old: Contract of 5 years, 75 million dollars

There is, arguably, no one better at closing out games at the moment (now that Mariano Rivera has retired) than Craig Kimbrel. Posting 40 or more saves each of the past three years, Kimbrel has overpowering stuff, and should continue to dominate as the Braves’ closer for years to come. I don’t normally like relief pitchers getting big contracts, but Kimbrel is the exception, with me giving him a contract worth 15 million a year.

8.) Bryce Harper — 21 years old: Contract of 5 years, 70 million dollars

This was difficult for me, putting Bryce Harper all the way down at number eight. He’s been hyped since the age of sixteen, and it hasn’t slowed since Harper reached the majors in 2012. But he’s just a bit “out of control” for me to place him any higher; at least for now. If he can get everything together, he has the potential to be a true five-tool player, and earn a mega-contract. From what I’ve seen so far, however, I’d give him five years to figure things out, giving him 14 million a season.

9.) Addison Reed — 25 years old: Contract of 5 years, 65 million dollars

Addison Reed — recently traded to the Diamondbacks from the White Sox — is one of the most dominant and reliable closers in all of baseball. Though he is somewhat of a question mark in terms of earned runs allowed per outing, Reed has very dominant stuff, and recorded 40 saves last season. He should remain a feared ninth inning man for years to come, earning him 13 million until he turns 30, in my book.

10.) Matt Harvey — 25 years old: Contract T.B.D.

The fact that Matt Harvey missed the last few games of 2013 and will miss the entire 2014 season, due to Tommy John surgery, and yet still makes my top ten speaks volumes for the type of player he is. Getting the start for the 2013 All-Star game, Harvey had a magnificent year, going 9-5 with a 2.27 ERA, and really put his name on the map. Once healthy, he should get a hefty contract. (It’s hard to say for sure how much he’s worth, which is why I left that to be determined down the road.)

Do you agree or disagree with my top ten? Leave a comment below.

Myers and Fernandez Win Rookie of the Year Award

The Rookie of the Year award was first handed out in 1947 to Jackie Robinson, after he broke baseball’s color barrier and went on to have a great first season of what would become a Hall of Fame career. After the award was given out to a single player again 1948, it expanded in 1949 to include a player from each league, and has been that way ever since.

Renamed the Jackie Robinson Rookie of the Year award in 1987, fourteen players who have won the award have gone on to the Hall of Fame, up until this point, of the 128 players to win it — several of those players are still active, however.

Voting for the award is fairly straightforward.

Two writers from each city of both the American League and National League make up the Baseball Writers’ Association of America (BBWAA) voters for the Rookie of the Year award, making a total of thirty voters for each league (fifteen teams, with two voters per city). A first place vote earns a player five points, a second place vote gets three points, with a third place vote receiving one point. Once added up, the player with the highest overall total wins.

The 2013 Major League Baseball Rookie of the Year award winners for both the American League and National League were announced Monday night on MLB Network. Here are the winners, along with my thoughts on each:

AMERICAN LEAGUE ROOKIE OF THE YEAR

Original Pick: Wil Myers

Finalists: Wil Myers, Chris Archer and Jose Iglesias

Winner: Wil Myers

Thoughts On Wil Myers Winning

It came as no surprise to myself or anyone else around the baseball world that Wil Myers won the 2013 American League Rookie of the Year award. Picking up 23 out of the 30 first-place votes, Myers’ 131 points overall led him to a relatively easy win over his competition in Jose Iglesias, who picked up 80 points, and Chris Archer, with his 35 points.

Though all of the candidates had great inaugural seasons, Wil Myers was the best choice and the most deserving for Rookie of the Year. After beginning the season at Triple-A, struggling for a bit of time, Myers was called up to the Majors in June, never looking back.

Batting .293 with 13 home runs and 53 RBI’s in just 88 games played, Myers becomes the third player in Rays’ franchise history to win the Rookie of the Year award; joining Evan Longoria, from 2008, and Jeremy Hellickson, who won back in 2011.

Wil Myers will undoubtedly be a star player for the Rays for many years to come.

The BBWAA’s vote had Jose Iglesias finishing second, with Chris Archer coming in third.

NATIONAL LEAGUE ROOKIE OF THE YEAR

Original Pick: Jose Fernandez

Finalists: Jose Fernandez, Shelby Miller and Yasiel Puig

Winner: Jose Fernandez

Thoughts On Jose Fernandez Winning

Although Shelby Miller had a great season, it came down to Jose Fernandez and Yasiel Puig, in the minds of many, for 2013 National League Rookie of the Year. It the end, the writers’ selected Jose Fernandez to win the award, doing so in overwhelming fashion. Fernandez received 26 of the 30 first-place votes, getting a total of 142 points, beating out Yasiel Puig’s 95 points and Shelby Miller’s mere 12 points.

I was really shocked by the dominance in which Fernandez won, however, he was very deserving.

Going 12-6 with a 2.19 ERA this past season — 9-0 with a 1.19 ERA in home starts — the original plan was for Fernandez to begin 2013 in Double-A, but a few injuries allowed him to make the roster in April. He excelled in his first start, and made the most of his opportunities this past season, truly placing himself over the other candidates.

Fernandez was with his mom and grandmother when he received the news that he had won the award, and it was an emotional scene.

Jose Fernandez is an humble guy who is sure to have a bright career.

The BBWAA’s vote had Yasiel Puig finishing second, with Shelby Miller coming in third.

2013 BBWAA ROY, Cy Young and MVP Award Finalists

The Baseball Writers’ Association of America (BBWAA) award finalists for 2013 Rookie of the Year, Cy Young and Most Valuable Player were announced Tuesday night on MLB Network. For the most part, I agree with the finalists; but there are a few I’m surprised about.

Here are the finalists, with who I have winning (click their names to find out why):

ROOKIE OF THE YEAR FINALISTS

American League: Chris Archer, Jose Iglesias and Wil Myers

National League: Jose Fernandez, Shelby Miller and Yasiel Puig

I have Wil Myers and Jose Fernandez winning the Rookie of the Year award.

CY YOUNG FINALISTS

American League: Yu Darvish, Hisashi Iwakuma and Max Scherzer

National League: Jose Fernandez, Clayton Kershaw and Adam Wainwright

I have Max Scherzer and Clayton Kershaw winning the Cy Young award.

MOST VALUABLE PLAYER FINALISTS

American League: Miguel Cabrera, Chris Davis and Mike Trout

National League: Paul Goldschmidt, Andrew McCutchen and Yadier Molina

I have Chris Davis and Paul Goldschmidt winning the Most Valuable Player award.

The winner of each award will be announced next week on MLB Network. Here’s the schedule:

AL & NL Rookie of the Year: November 11th

AL & NL Cy Young: November 13th

AL & NL Most Valuable Player: November 14th

As stated in a previous blog post, I plan on posting a recap of each winner, along with a look at how well I did with my predictions, in a blog entry after each award is officially announced. So be sure to check back for that . . . .

My Vote for AL and NL Rookie of the Year

I decided to combine my vote for American League and National League Rookie of the Year (R.O.Y.) into one post, because as hard as I tried to think of a case for several American League players for the award, I couldn’t. Though Jose Iglesias and a few other players had decent rookie seasons, I could only manage to make a strong case for the one player that truly deserves the award and will likely win it with overwhelming support: Wil Myers.

The season Myers was able to put together is truly remarkable. While Myers didn’t lead all AL rookies in every category, as Mike Trout did last year, — several other players this season beat out Myers in average and home runs — when you combine it all together, no one else has the stats for the award.

Batting .293 with 13 home runs and 53 RBI’s in 88 games played, Myers is certainly off to a fast start to his Major League career. A start that should see him receiving the first major award of his career — the Rookie of the Year award.

In the running for National League Rookie of the Year it’s a far different story than the American League portion.

Matt Adams, Evan Gattis, Jedd Gyorko, Yasiel Puig, Julio Teheran, Hyu-Jin Ryu, Shelby Miller and Jose Fernandez are all in the mix for NL Rookie of the Year, in my opinion, but in the end, only a few of them made my final cut. Those players being Shelby Miller, Yasiel Puig and Jose Fernandez. (It’s somewhat difficult to compare two pitchers to a hitter, but I’ll try my best with each case.)

Shelby Miller had a great first season, going 15-9 with a 3.06 ERA. Although he had a decent rookie year, with all of the great candidates for NL Rookie of the Year, Miller didn’t quite do enough to receive the award. But while he won’t win the R.O.Y, Miller is very likely to win a Cy Young or two at some point down the road in his career.

Yasiel Puig came up in early June and helped turn around an awful Dodgers team. But while Puig was a big reason for their successful second half of the season, he began to slow down towards the end of the year. Therefore, despite batting .319 with 19 homers and 42 RBI’s this season, Puig will come up just short of winning the award, in my mind.

Jose Fernandez is the only person standing in the way of a relatively easy win for Yasiel Puig. Able to dominate for the Marlins this season, Fernandez posted a 12-6 record with a 2.19 ERA and opponent batting average of .182 — going 9-0 with a 1.19 ERA in home starts this year.

Fernandez isn’t the unanimous pick to win the award by everyone around the baseball world, but his overall dominance at such a young age (21) is enough for me to make him my vote for the National League Rookie of the Year.

Story Lines Worth Watching In the Final Month

It’s hard to believe but the 2013 MLB regular season is almost over. (Today marks exactly one month until the final games of the season, on September 29th.) Teams are making their final push for the post season, and every player is doing their best to finish out the season strong. With all of this going on, I thought I’d post an entry on the five main story lines I plan to keep an eye on throughout the final stretch.

American League Home Run Race

It’s a two-man race, between the Orioles’ Chris Davis and the Tigers’ Miguel Cabrera, for who will receive the title of 2013 home run champion. But more importantly for Cabrera, he’s not just chasing down Davis for that title alone; Cabrera is trying to do what no one in the history of the game has ever been able to do: Win back-to-back Triple Crowns.

Davis currently holds a four home run lead over Cabrera (who is day-to-day, after suffering an injury in Thursday’s game) — Cabrera leads all of baseball in batting average and RBI’s — and with a mere month left of the season, it’s going to take a real display of power for Cabrera to overtake Davis. But if anyone can do it, Miguel Cabrera can.

Candidates for Rookie of the Year Award

The Rookie of the Year award is going to be a difficult award to decide, for both the American League and National League. Both leagues have several players that have strong cases, so it’s going to be interesting to see which player will have a great final month to move themselves above the rest.

Currently, top candidates from the American League, for the R.O.Y. award, include Wil Myers, Chris Archer and David Lough, while the National League has quite a few more top candidates, in Yasiel Puig, Matt Adams, Nolan Arenado, Jedd Gyorko, Evan Gattis, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Jose Fernandez and Shelby Miller, among others. Making this a story line well worth watching.

National League Central Division

The National League Central is currently the closest of all the divisions in Major League Baseball. Less than four games separate the top three teams, being the Cardinals, Pirates and Reds. (This is the first season in 21 years that the Pirates will finish with a winning record.) With the Diamondback’s slowly falling out of the race to catch up — though there’s still a slight chance they could — it would appear to be between these three teams for who will win the division.

No matter which team is able to hold on in the final month of the season, to win the division, all three are likely to make the post season, with the extra Wild Card spot, that was added last season.

Max Scherzer’s Cy Young Quest

Of all of the great pitchers in the American League none have been as dominant throughout the entire season as Max Scherzer. Having gone 19-1 — only the third pitcher to ever start a season winning 19 out of their first 20 decisions — with a 2.90 ERA, Scherzer is well on his way to winning the Cy Young award, if he can keep up the great performance.

Though I think Yu Darvish will get a lot of consideration for the award — rightfully so, currently sitting at 12-5, with a 2.68 ERA, leading all of baseball in strikeouts — the award is currently Scherzer’s to lose, in the minds of many around the baseball world.

Houston Astros’ Loss Record

With 30 games left to play, the Houston Astros hold a win-loss record of 44-88 — the worst record in all of baseball. They currently sit 33.5 games out of first place in their division, and look to have a losing record for the fifth straight season. Having lost 107 games in 2012, and 106 in 2011, it will be interesting to see if the Astros can finish with fewer than 100 losses this season.

They’ll have to go 19-11, in their final 30 games, which isn’t impossible, but with it being the Astros, it’s not all that likely. It should be interesting to see if the Astros can at least finish out the year on a high note, after yet another disappointing season.

What’re you looking forward to? Leave a comment below.

Top 10 Story Lines I’m Planning to Watch In 2013

We’re just over 48 hours away from the start of the 2013 MLB regular season, and I couldn’t be more excited. Baseball fans everywhere are making final predictions as to how they feel things will play out, as players are making their final preparations for the long 162 game season. As my last blog post until the season begins, I wanted to do a brief overview of the top story lines I’m planning to keep an eye on in 2013. They may differ slightly from yours, but I feel I covered nearly all of the major topics:

1. How the Astros will fare in the American League:

Having lost 107 games in the National League in 2012, I’m watching the Astros, not for how good they’ll do, but for how bad they’ll do. Sorry to any Astros fans reading this post, but there’s no denying that the odds are against the Astros going into the 2013 season. Playing in one of the toughest divisions in baseball, with the newly revamped Angels, they’re likely to have just as bad of a season as last year, if not slightly worse. I’d say it would be considered a good year for the Astros if they finish with less than 100 losses.

2. If Bryce Harper and Mike Trout can keep up their 2012 R.O.Y. seasons:

Posting some incredible stats, leading to one of the best rookie seasons in MLB history, I’m going to keep a closer eye on Mike Trout than I am Bryce Harper, but I’m planning to watch Harper nonetheless. Both won the Rookie of the Year award in 2012, for their respective leagues, and it should be interesting to see if their amazing rookie years will transfer into the 2013 season. I’m predicting Trout will once again have a 30/30 season, with Harper possibly recording the first 30 home run season of his career.

3. Who will hit the most home runs in 2013:

The 2012 home run leaders consisted of Miguel Cabrera, Curtis Granderson and Josh Hamilton, as the 1-2-3 guys, and if it wasn’t for an injured Granderson, I could see all three being near the top of the rankings again in 2013. However, with Granderson out with an injury for the first portion of the year–while I see Cabrera once again leading all players in homers, with Hamilton coming in a close second–it will likely be a new face who will round out the top three. Maybe it’ll be a guy like Adam Dunn, who’s a free-swinger? Or maybe a guy no one saw coming, who will have a breakout season? It will certainly be fun to keep track of.

4. If A-Rod comes back healthy, if at all:

While it’s 100 percent certain that Alex Rodriguez won’t return to the Yankees’ lineup until late July, there is the slight chance that he could miss the entire season. However, if A-Rod is able to work his way back this season, after having hip surgery in January, it should be very interesting to see if he can become a decent player once again. While Rodriguez will never be the great player he once was, if healthy, he has the ability to make an impact for the Yankees. Although I’m not the biggest fan of A-Rod, I still hope he comes back healthy. But I find it very unlikely that he will ever again play at a competitive level.

5. How the rookies, such as Wil Myers, will impact their teams in 2013:

I discussed this a couple months ago, in my blog post on the Top 100 prospects going into the 2013 season, but this time around I’m only focusing my attention on a handful of rookies who I feel will have the biggest impact for their team this season. Wil Myers is the number one guy on my radar, with Shelby Miller, Jurickson Profar and Billy Hamilton being the other three main rookies I plan on keeping track of. Myers was the minor league player of the year, in 2012, and I fully see him posting more of the same stats, as he begins the the year with AAA Durham. Of the four, Miller is the only player that is starting in the majors to begin the year, but they should all make it to the big leagues at some point this season, and are sure to each play a key role in their teams’ success.

6. How the Upton bro’s do for the Atlanta Braves:

You could argue that, with the addition of both Justin Upton and B.J. Upton to roam the outfield with Jason Heyward, the Braves have the best all-around outfield in all of baseball. All three players have great range, giving them the ability to make plays on balls that other outfielders couldn’t get to, but furthermore, they all have the talent to impact their team offensively as well. Both Upton’s, as well as Heyward, have the ability to blast 25+ home runs and 85+ RBI’s, as well as steal a good amount of bases. If they can perform to their potential this season, combined with the great lineup and pitching rotation they already had, the Braves could be an outstanding team.

7. What kind of a year players who ended 2012 injured will have in 2013:

The reason A-Rod had his own category, and wasn’t included in this one, is merely because his return is uncertain. All of the players in this category didn’t play at all after their injury in 2012, and will make a guaranteed comeback, within at least the first few weeks of the season. With that said, the most impactful players to end last season with an injury, that I’ll be watching in 2013, include Derek Jeter, Troy Tulowitzki and Mariano Rivera.

Mariano Rivera tore his ACL in May, while Derek Jeter fractured his ankle in October, with neither playing any more games for the remainder of the year. Rivera is expected to be ready to go Opening Day, though a slight setback for Jeter will force him onto the disable list to begin the year. In my opinion, the 2013 performances of both Jeter and Rivera will be the deciding factor for what kind of season the Yankees have. If Jeter can return quickly, and Rivera can post his usual stellar numbers, I see the Yankees being just fine.

Troy Tulowitzki injured his groin in May of last season, and although it appeared he would return towards the end of the year, he remained sidelined for the remainder of the season. A healthy Tulowitzki can impact the Rockies more than nearly any other player in all of baseball, though he hasn’t been able to stay healthy for the majority of his career. While I can’t see the Rockies finishing any better than last in their division, I’m planning to watch “Tulo” nonetheless, to see if he can finally have a successful, fully healthy season.

8. How the Blue Jays, Dodgers and Angels perform with their new additions:

The Blue Jays, Dodgers and Angels made the biggest splashes of nearly every other team in all of baseball this past offseason; at least of the teams that stand a chance of competing. Many have the Blue Jays going the distance, and winning it all, with the key additions of Jose Reyes, Melky Cabrera and 2012 Cy Young winner R.A. Dickey, to name a few, though I don’t see it happening. I find myself siding more with the opinions of those who are betting on the Dodgers and Angels to have a great season.

The Angels’ major addition of the offseason was undoubtedly Josh Hamilton, who, with the help of Mike Trout and Albert Pujols, has the ability to transform the Angels into an extremely competitive team. Hamilton might end up being the piece the Angels were missing last season, that will help them make the playoffs in 2013.

The number one addition of the offseason for the Dodgers was Zack Greinke, though they also acquired Hyun-Jin Ryu, the highly praised LHP from Korea. Adding them both, to go along with their already deep pitching rotation, could end up making the Dodgers a team to be reckoned with in 2013.

9. Whether or not the Nationals make it to the World Series:

Last season, Nationals’ manager, Davey Johnson, made the bold statement that he should be fired if the Nat’s didn’t make the playoffs in 2012. Luckily for Johnson, they did, for the first time since 1933. This season, however, it’s “World Series or bust” for the Nationals, and although I was a bit skeptical last year, I’m not putting it past them to make it all the way to the World Series this season, for what would be the first time in Nationals’ franchise history. With a fantastic lineup, as well as one of the best starting rotations in all of baseball, they should go far in the coming season, though they’ll have to make it past the favorited Braves, who many (myself included) have winning the division.

10. Which team(s) will have an unexpected breakout season:

Every season, it seems, there is a team or two that unexpectedly takes the baseball world by storm. On paper, they shouldn’t be winning, but yet they come together as a team and are able to do amazing things. The 2012 example would be the Oakland Athletics and the Baltimore Orioles, as the majority of baseball fans, going into the 2012 season, didn’t see the O’s and A’s exploding the way they did. Truly showing that baseball is extremely unpredictable. Any team has the chance to defy the odds, which is part of what makes baseball so great. Anything can happen.

Which story line from above are you most looking forward to? Leave a comment below.